Defense zone 2 torrent6/11/2023 hawks exploit blogger's death to demand executions and an even harsher crackdown on dissent Ryan, who writes the Futura Doctrina newsletter, said: “We could reasonably expect offensive action probably of different scales in at least two (and possibly more) locations in the east and south,” not least to confuse the Russians about where the main thrust will occur.Ī well-known Russian military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky, is seen in this undated social media picture obtained by Reuters on April 2, 2023. There’s already been an uptick in such attacks in southern Zaporizhzhia and Crimea. One clue – though it may be well-camouflaged – will be operations to strike logistics hubs, rear bases and ammunition stores deep behind the Russians’ front lines, both with long-range Western weapons, such as HIMARS, and sabotage operations. Mark Milley, said: “The Ukrainians are moving things around on these maps to determine what is their best course of action, and they determine the advantages and disadvantages of the risks associated.” The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Senior US and Ukrainian officers carried out “table-top” simulations last month. ![]() The logistics chain – which may be hampered by poor weather more than armor – is critically important. ![]() Ryan says such ambitious offensives consume large amounts of fuel, munitions, food, medical supplies and spare equipment. “Ukrainian sources have already telegraphed that they’re forming or have formed six to nine new brigades for counteroffensives,” said Kateryna Stepanenko at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC. “Included in these will not only be new Western tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, wheeled vehicles and other equipment but also a lot of engineering equipment,” Ryan told CNN. Ukraine is standing up several new corps, each of which would comprise several thousand troops. The “intelligence picture will inform things like where there might be weaknesses in Russian defensive deployments, as well as locations of Russian HQ, logistics, and reserve force locations,” said Mick Ryan, formerly a general in the Australian army who was recently in Ukraine. Ignacio Marin/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images The essential preconditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive include the completion of training and integration of new units, degrading the Russian rear, a resilient logistics chain and real-time intelligence.Īn aerial view of a tank driving along the frontline north of Bakhmut, Ukraine on March 17, 2023. Predictions are a fool’s errand there will be plenty of bluff and disinformation about intentions in the coming weeks. That suggests the Ukrainians may take their time to maximize capabilities. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said in an interview last month that Russia and Ukraine will fight “a decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the final one before this war ends.” ![]() But can it be executed and if so where, when and with what? Even the Ukrainians themselves may not yet know as they study the 1,000-kilometer front line for Russian vulnerabilities, just as they did when suddenly launching the surprise September offensive in the northeast region of Kharkiv.īut they are aware it will be a crucial chapter in the conflict. That has been the mantra of Ukraine’s military for months, one echoed by senior US and NATO officials since the winter. Weather the storm, exhaust the enemy and then strike back.
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